Teiko National Elections, 2015

The Teiko national elections of 2015 was the fifth sextennial national elections in the Federal Kingdom of Teiko since 1986. It was held Thursday, November 26, 2015. Voting took place in all representatives constituencies of Teiko including proportional blocks, in order to elect the next Premier and Deputy Premier of Teiko and all the district and sectoral representatives of the Teiko Royal Council through a plurality voting system via single constituency voting and proportional block system.

The results of the prefectural canvassing showed that Incumbent Premier Seijuro Akashi of the Teiko National Party won by a plurality against Beika 6th District Representative Shun Izuki. Meanwhile, in the election of the deputy premier, Minister for Social Welfare and Development Rei Ryugazaki of the coalition, United Opposition has defeated Minister for Justice Raito Yagami of the Teiko National Party in the narrowest margin in the history of teiko national elections. Akashi and Ryugazaki were proclaimed winners by the Commission on Elections on December 4, 2015 and is expected to take their oath of office on January 30, 2016.

As incumbent premier, Akashi secured the TNP nomination without serious opposition. Although, this came out as a late announcement since he had earlier announce that he would be retiring from politics. The Democratic Party of Teiko and Liberal Party of Teiko on the other hand joined together under one alliance, United Opposition. Shun Izuki later was chosen by a caucus. The campaign was marked by a sharp rise in fundraising and election related expenses. The campaigns focused heavily on domestic and economic issues: debate centered heavily on Teiko's neutrality on military issues, economic stimulus package for job creation and budget deficit cuts. Other issues included social security and networking policies and the controversial anti-bigamy act.

Akashi defeated Izuki in a one of the closest gap in any national elections in the country. Akashi manage to maintain his influence on 5 prefectures, same with his performance last 2009. He became the first premier to be re-elected to a second term after completing his first term. Premier Izaya Orihara did not start his term as an elected premier in 2000.

The national elections also included the legislative and local elections. Results showed that the Teiko National Party has won a landslide victory of 132 seats against the Democratic Party of Teiko and Liberal Party of Teiko with 40 and 15 respectively. This is the first time in Teiko's history that the two highest officials in the country are coming from different parties.

Electoral system
According to the Constitution of Teiko, the election is held every six years after 1986, on the last Thursday of November. The premier is required to be a concurrent member of the Teiko Royal Council directly preceding his nomination as candidate. For deputy premiership, any former and current member of the Teiko Royal Council may be nominated. Both offices are term limited, the premier may only serve for at most two terms while the deputy premier may serve at most three terms. The plurality voting system is used to determine the winner: the candidate with the highest number of votes, whether or not one has a majority, wins the premiership. All four major elections: premiership, deputy premiership, legislative and local (prefeceture level) elections are separate and voters may split their ticket. Hence, it is possible that the premier may come from the minority party in the couoncil. Both winners will serve six-year terms commencing on the noon of 30 January 2016 and ending on the same day six years later.

Timeline
On August 18, 2014, the Commission on Elections released the calendar of activities for the November 26, 2015 national and prefectural and district elections:

Background
Akashi Seijuro won a landslide victory in the 2009 national elections becoming the youngest premier in the country to date. In his first term in office, Akashi faced wide criticism on handling fiscal matters such as the large budget cuts in defense and social security. He also faced issues on the controversial legilization of same-sex marriage in 2014. In 2015, the national party was criticized for planing to legalize bigamy in the country, a move that almost split the national party into factions. The all-time low approval of the Akashi cabinet and the instability of the national party were among the key factors during the early opinion polling of the national elections. Major issues such as economic stagnation, territorial disputes, migration, social security and the Trans-Pacific Partnership were among the major issues centered during the campaign.

As the deadline for the nominations approached, in 25 February 2015, the second and the third largest political parties in Teiko, Democratic Party of Teiko and Liberal Party of Teiko had agreed to form a coalition to strengthen their committment in change in governance. Named United Opposition, the coalition marks the first alliance between two political parties in the country's history since the 1984 Teiko Constitutional Crises.

Primaries
As incumbent premier, Akashi faced little opposition to his party's nomination. Akashi accepted Teiko National Party's nomination in March 15, 2015 causing a nationwide stir as he earlier announced that he will not be running for re-election. Having been well-known as a rising star and a new face of politics, Akashi promised to continue the programs of the national party while introducing new economic reforms to stimulate the economy's stagnation due to recession.

Candidates

 * Akashi Seijuro (赤司 征十郎) - Nominated
 * Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Rakuzan 4th district (2004 - Present)
 * Incumbent Premier of Teiko (30 January 2010 - Present)
 * Former Minister for Interior and District Government (16 August 2007 – 30 January 2010)


 * Suzaku Kururugi (枢木 スザク) - Declined
 * Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Kaijo 1st district (2001 - Present)
 * Former Deputy Premier of Teiko (30 January 2010 - 30 January 2016)


 * Yuu Yanase (‎柳瀬 優) - Declined
 * Former Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Kaijo PR (1997 - 2016)
 * Former Minister for Transportation (31 October 2014 - 30 January 2016)
 * Former Minister for Regional Economic Planning and Development
 * Former Teiko National Bank Managing Director


 * Fukui Kensuke (‎福井 健介) - Declined
 * Former Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Kaijo PR (1986 - 2016)
 * Former Sangdaedeung of the Teiko Royal Council (4 February 2013 - 1 February 2016)
 * Former Minister for Finance (2012 - 2013)
 * Former Minister of Defense (2010 - 2011)

Primaries
A considerable number of well-known politicians from both parties (democratic and liberal) entered the race to become the United Opposition's nominee. The nomination was crucial since this was the first time that both parties will agree on its nominations, having been competing agianst each other in the past four national elections. Among those who got early support were democratic party president Tatsuya Himuro and liberal party general secretary Haizaki Shougo of which both already have previous experience in national elections (both ran in separate tickets in 2009). In March, both parties agreed to nominate candidates who have no previous experience in national elections. Branding the United Opposition as a fresh face and genuine change, Kaijo 8th district representative Shun Izuki, Shizuoka 1st district representative Kiyoshi Miyaji and Tetsuya PR representative Yukihira Souma emerged as favorite nominees in the early process of the selection. Since there was not enough time for debates, only two debates were held on 15 and 29 of March respectively while the final voting were done in 1 April.

Candidates

 * Shun Izuki (伊月 俊) - Nominated
 * Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Kaijo 8th district (2001 - Present)
 * Leader of the Opposition of the Teiko Royal Council (1 February 2016 - Present)
 * Former Teiko National Security Adviser (15 April 2008 – Febaruary 9 2010)
 * Former Teiko Special Advisory Board Commissioner (2006 - 2008)


 * Kiyoshi Miyaji (宮地 清志)
 * Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Shizuoka 1st district


 * Yukihira Souma (幸平 創真)
 * Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Tetsuya PR


 * Tatsuya Himuro ((氷室 辰也) - Widthrawn
 * Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Kamizaki PR (1980 - Present)
 * Former Leader of the Opposition of the Teiko Royal Council (August 19, 2013 - 1 February 2016)


 * Haizaki Shougo (灰崎 祥吾) - Widthrawn
 * Member of the Teiko Royal Council from Seirin PR (1986 - Present)

Voting Results
The official results of the voting were announced on 2 April at the UNO Convention after which the candidates immediately submitted their certificate of candidacies as the deadline was 3 April.

Opinion polling
Opinion polling in Teiko is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Teiko Pulse and other pollsters.

Exit polls
The Social Weather Stations, together with Teiko Television Network, published their exit poll a few hours after polling closed. The results were:

Premier


Akashi carried five prefectures which includes Rakuzan and Kaijo, two of the most popolous among others. Akashi's support mainly comes from northwestern and central Teiko districts. Izuki carried most of Kamizaki Prfecture and southern Teiko districts. Izuki's failure to win his hometown district of Kaijo is one of the clear main reasons for his lost in the elections. Yoshida won Akamayu city and its surrounding districts where his family originated. Sohma also won his home district Haranishi and its surrounding districts where he had served as representative for nearly fifteen years. Sugou failed to win a majority in any district.

!rowspan="2" style="width: 15em" |Candidate !rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="width: 15em" |Party ! style="width: 14em" colspan="2" |Results ! style="width: 9em" |Votes ! style="width: 5em" |%
 * - style="background-color:#EEEEEE;text-align:center;"
 * - style="background-color:#EEEEEE;text-align:center;"
 * -style="background: #FFFFCC; font-weight:bold;"
 * style="text-align:left;" |Seijuro Akashi


 * style="text-align:right;" | 7,621,907
 * style="text-align:right;" | 40.82%
 * style="text-align:left;" |Shun Izuki
 * style="text-align:left;" |Shun Izuki


 * style="text-align:right;" | 7,041,034
 * style="text-align:right;" | 37.73%
 * style="text-align:left;" |Momiji Sohma
 * style="text-align:left;" |Momiji Sohma


 * style="text-align:right;" | 1,758,309
 * style="text-align:right;" | 9.42%
 * style="text-align:left;" |Haru Yoshida
 * style="text-align:left;" |Haru Yoshida


 * style="text-align:right;" | 1,430,164
 * style="text-align:right;" | 7.66%
 * style="text-align:left;" |Nobuyuki Sugou
 * style="text-align:left;" |Nobuyuki Sugou


 * style="text-align:right;" | 681,772
 * style="text-align:right;" | 3.65%
 * -style="background:#EEEEEE"
 * colspan="3" style="text-align:right;" | Total valid votes
 * style="text-align:right;" | 18,533,186
 * style="text-align:right;" | 99.28%
 * -style="background:#EEEEEE"
 * colspan="3" style="text-align:right;" | Total invalid votes
 * style="text-align:right;" | 130,135
 * style="text-align:right;" | 0.72%
 * -style="background:#EEEEEE; font-weight:bold"
 * colspan="3" style="text-align:right;" | Total turnout
 * style="text-align:right;" | 18,663,321
 * style="text-align:right;" | 98.85%
 * -style="background:#EEEEEE; font-weight:bold"
 * colspan="3" style="text-align:right;" | Registered voters
 * style="text-align:right;" | 18,880,446
 * style="text-align:right;" | 100.00%
 * }
 * style="text-align:right;" | 100.00%
 * }

Teiko premiership election results

Deputy Premier
!rowspan="2" style="width: 15em" |Candidate !rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="width: 15em" |Party ! style="width: 14em" colspan="2" |Results ! style="width: 9em" |Votes ! style="width: 5em" |%
 * - style="background-color:#EEEEEE;text-align:center;"
 * - style="background-color:#EEEEEE;text-align:center;"
 * -style="background: #FFFFCC; font-weight:bold;"
 * style="text-align:left;" |Rei Ryugazaki


 * style="text-align:right;" | 7,822,364
 * style="text-align:right;" | 41.91%
 * style="text-align:left;" |Raito Yagami
 * style="text-align:left;" |Raito Yagami


 * style="text-align:right;" | 7,785,446
 * style="text-align:right;" | 41.72%
 * style="text-align:left;" |Koichi Shido
 * style="text-align:left;" |Koichi Shido


 * style="text-align:right;" | 1,244,841
 * style="text-align:right;" | 6.67%
 * style="text-align:left;" |Kenji Yamaguchi
 * style="text-align:left;" |Kenji Yamaguchi


 * style="text-align:right;" | 1,066,524
 * style="text-align:right;" | 5.71%
 * style="text-align:left;" |Kyoko Misawa
 * style="text-align:left;" |Kyoko Misawa


 * style="text-align:right;" | 613,900
 * style="text-align:right;" | 3.29%
 * -style="background:#EEEEEE"
 * colspan="3" style="text-align:right;" | Total valid votes
 * style="text-align:right;" | 18,533,075
 * style="text-align:right;" | 99.28%
 * -style="background:#EEEEEE"
 * colspan="3" style="text-align:right;" | Total invalid votes
 * style="text-align:right;" | 130,246
 * style="text-align:right;" | 0.07%
 * -style="background:#EEEEEE; font-weight:bold"
 * colspan="3" style="text-align:right;" | Total turnout
 * style="text-align:right;" | 18,663,321
 * style="text-align:right;" | 98.85%
 * -style="background:#EEEEEE; font-weight:bold"
 * colspan="3" style="text-align:right;" | Registered voters
 * style="text-align:right;" | 18,880,446
 * style="text-align:right;" | 100.00%
 * }
 * style="text-align:right;" | 100.00%
 * }

Teiko deputy premiership election results

Close races
Margin of victory is less than 5% for the premiership election
 * 1)  Kaijo, 3.28% 
 * 2)  Seirin, 3.28% 

Margin of victory is less than 5% for the deputy premiership election
 * 1)  Kaijo, 3.27% 

Teiko legislative elections
The Teiko legislative elections was held on November 26, 2015 to determine all the members of the Teiko Royal Council. 100 district representatives were elected coming form single constituency districts, another 100 district representatives were elected from proportional block system and 50 from sectoral representatives. The Teiko National Party retained their absolute majority by winning 132 seats against the two largest opposition, Democratic Party of Teiko and Liberal Party of Teiko with 40 and 15 seats respectively.

Results (legislative)
! colspan="4" rowspan="2" | Political Party ! colspan="3" | Local Constituency Vote	!! colspan="3" | PR Block Vote ! colspan="2" | Total Seats !! colspan="2" | +/− ! Votes !! % !! Seats ! Votes !! % !! Seats ! Total !! % ! Seats Before !! Changes ! style="text-align:left;" colspan="4" | Total ! 18,570,004 !! 100.00% !! 100 ! 18,532,678 !! 100.00% !! 100 ! 200 !! 100% !! - !! -
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"
 * rowspan="3" |
 * style="text-align:left;" colspan="3" | United Opposition (Coalition)
 * 7,008,077 || 37.55% || 30
 * 7,129,389 || 38.20% || 25
 * 55 || 22.00% || - || -
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" | Democratic Party of Teiko || DPT
 * 4,040,609 || 21.65% || 20
 * 4,591,17 || 24.60% || 20
 * 40 || 16.00% || 36 || +4
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" | Liberal Party of Teiko || LPT
 * 2,967,468 || 15.90% || 10
 * 2,538,212 || 13.60% || 5
 * 15 || 6.00% || 11 || +4
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" colspan="2" | Teiko National Party || TNP
 * 8,743,766 || 46.85% || 58
 * 9,667,600 || 51.80% || 74
 * 132 || 52.80% || 130 || +2
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" colspan="2" | Social Democratic Party || SDP
 * 895,839 || 4.81% || 3
 * 709,206 || 3.78% || 1
 * 4 || 1.60% || 7 || -3
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" colspan="2" | Teiko Communist Party || TCP
 * 597,226 || 3.22% || 3
 * 279,950 || 1.48% || 0
 * 3 || 1.20% || 2 || +1
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" colspan="2" | Teiko Restoration Party || TRP
 * 466,583 || 2.53% || 2
 * 298,613 || 1.64% || 0
 * 2 || 0.80% || 8 || -6
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" colspan="2" | Teiko Green Party || TGP
 * 391,930 || 2.05% || 1
 * 205,297 || 1.13% || 0
 * 1 || 0.40% || 1 || 0
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" colspan="2" | Independents ||
 * 466,583 || 2.51% || 3
 * 3 || 1.20% || 5 || -2
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * 391,930 || 2.05% || 1
 * 205,297 || 1.13% || 0
 * 1 || 0.40% || 1 || 0
 * style="background-color:" |
 * style="text-align:left;" colspan="2" | Independents ||
 * 466,583 || 2.51% || 3
 * 3 || 1.20% || 5 || -2
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * 3 || 1.20% || 5 || -2
 * - style="background-color:#E9E9E9"
 * }
 * }

Note: 50 seats are reserved for sectoral party list representation.

Three-choice surveys (premier and deputy premier)
The following is a pre-election opinion polling conducted by the Teiko Pulse, one of the largest surveying and statistics analysis in Teiko. Teiko Pulse has been conduction pre-election opinion polling since 1918. The following poll results are for surveys that allowed respondents to choose up to three people. The top three people with the best result are boldfaced; those within the margin of error of the third-best person are italicized.

Single-choice party polling for the 200 district seats
Note: 20% is dedicated to part-lists, thus percentages does not equal to 100.